Brent Crude Oil Lost 10.5% In Two Days!

In our 2025 Brent crude oil forecast, we analyzed 4 different scenarios, which #XBRUSD could have followed throughout the year. By now, it is clear that the 3rd and 4th scenarios are developing at a very rapid pace.

On March 5, we closed in profit our short trade idea in crude oil and warned you that further shorts should wait, as the $70/b level had acted as a very strong support since September 2024. 

Once again, we were right. Brent rebounded to the upper edge of the consolidation on the 1D timeframe, fueled by Trump’s threats to bomb Iran and little progress in the US – Russia peace talks. After the US President declared a tariff war on all and everyone, however, XBRUSD crashed 10.5% in 2 days.

It has finally overcome the $70/b support and is now trading at $67.5/b, as traders expected crude demand to lower significantly due to shrinking trade activity. At the same time, as we predicted, OPEC+ members also unwound production cuts, further pressuring the price from the supply side.

We still view only the short scenario for crude oil as the most likely, with spikes to the upside possible only if tariffs are not implemented and the US does not wage war against Iran. In any other case, as a recession is the most probable scenario, a $65/b – $61/b will likely be the first stop. Possibly, this will happen after a retest of the $70/b level.

Then, if the global economic and political conditions deteriorate further, a further drop to $50/b is possible.

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