Market Weekly Overview | April 1
Welcome to this week’s market overview, where we break down key financial events, geopolitical developments, and market trends that shape global trading dynamics. Each edition provides an in-depth analysis of major assets, including gold, Bitcoin, and EURUSD, alongside critical news affecting the broader financial landscape. Whether you are a trader looking for strategic insights or an investor keeping track of macroeconomic shifts, this report delivers the essential updates you need to navigate the markets effectively.
Key market news and statistics:
- Trump “very angry” at Putin – threatens 25% tariffs on Russian oil exports to be implemented “at any moment”
- Ukraine still refuses the US deal on rare metals
- Israel bombs Beirut in first major airstrike
- Trump threatens to bomb Iran, if no nuclear deal is signed
- April 2 tariff judgment day on Wednesday
- US NFP due on April 4 – markets brace for volatility
Gold
After completing a brief retracement, where we provided you with entry points at $3022/oz and $3005/oz, #XAUUSD started the week with an impressive bull run, gaining more than $40 in the first trading hours of March 31. The move happened on extremely negative news for geopolitical and trade stability that we analyzed in yesterday’s post.
Considering the last Trump statements, a further escalation is possible both with Russia and Iran, at least, of course, the US President changes his mind again. Still, his plan to “end all wars” seems pretty farfetched, especially if his strategy to reach a peace agreement resides in threats of bombings and sanctions. Tomorrow, April 2, is judgment day regarding the tariffs he threatened to impose. In case exceptions are made, the metal might retrace again strongly, but is unlikely to fall below $3000/oz. In case every tariff is implemented without exceptions – the rally might continue. The NFP might provide a crucial reading for gold – if it rises more than forecast, a stronger pullback might be coming for XAUUSD.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin lowered after reaching a week's high of $88,700, following our range-trade advised strategy. If you shorted the crypto pair, following this strategy, you would have profited much. Fundamentals weight on Bitcoin, as well as US equities, with the #NASDAQ-100 crashing -2.61% on March 28 (check out our bearish forecast on Indices). Bitcoin follows equities, enhancing their performance, remaining to this day a very risk-averse asset.
Now, following our last week’s strategy, you could also have traded the breakout short. April 2 remains key to future Bitcoin dynamics, with a strong chance that the pair will test again the $77,000 yearly low. In case exceptions are made, the leading cryptocurrency might regain lost ground. The NFP also remains in focus, with stronger numbers sending BTC lower, while weaker numbers can save it from a bigger crash.
EURUSD
The Fiber went down to 1.07320 last week. A quick rebound then followed, fueled by weaker-than-expected inflation data in France and Spain, declining French consumer spending, and Germany's growing unemployment rate, even as these data pieces reinforce the case for monetary easing. Moreover, traders unwound long positions in the USD, waiting for the decisive trigger on April 2.
The short play in EURUSD remains dominant at the moment, especially if the tariffs on April 2 fail to give investors such a long-awaited comfort shot. Heavy trade war escalation would only harm the EUR, sending it lower. At the same time, weakening US data at the end of the week could provide the needed reassurance and send the pair higher (if the NFP data surprises traders to the worst). For now, you can look for short entries, targeting the same 1.06600 level as last week.
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