Market Weekly Overview | April 15

Welcome to this week’s market overview, where we break down key financial events, geopolitical developments, and market trends that shape global trading dynamics. Each edition provides an in-depth analysis of major assets, including gold, Bitcoin, and EURUSD, alongside critical news affecting the broader financial landscape. Whether you are a trader looking for strategic insights or an investor keeping track of macroeconomic shifts, this report delivers the essential updates you need to navigate the markets effectively.

Key market news and statistics:

• Trump postponed tariffs for 90 days for everyone, except China
• China vs US trade war escalates: China hikes tariffs to 125%
• Trump lowered tariffs to 20% for Chinese chips and semiconductors
• US Dollar Index (DXY) plunged to its lowest levels since March 2022
• US envoy Steve Witkoff visited Russia for peace talks with Putin 
• Gaza Strip situation continues to grow more dire
• Diplomatic talks between Iran and the US continue
• ECB Interest Rate decision on April 17, 15:15 MT time
• Gold rocketed to new ATHs, fueled by tariffs safe haven demand

Gold

Last week, XAUUSD rose from a local low of $2963/oz to a new ATH of $3246/oz and reached our second $3200/oz target. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs and the rapidly changing minds of the US administration makes it impossible for businesses to plan long-term strategies, boosting uncertainty-hedge instruments, like gold. Cooling US inflation data released on April 10 boosted the rally, as we predicted in last week’s Market Overview. While the geopolitical situation seems to begin slowly cooling, the tensions remain highly elevated.

Gold masterfully completed the Fibonacci Golden Zone on the daily chart, resuming the rally with a vertical surge, gaining $266 in 3 days. This dynamic, while highly appealing from a FOMO perspective, advises caution. Usually, a vertical rise after a prolonged bullish trend signals the end of the bull market. On the other hand, however, fundamentals remain extremely strong, so our last $3400/oz target by year-end remains unchanged. If gold falls below $3180/oz, a retracement to $3109/oz – $3076/oz is likely to happen. These levels can be used to form a short-to-medium-term long position, with the mandatory use of a Stop-Loss, in case a heavier correction happens. The odds of gold continuing its record no-pullback rally, considering recent news events, are low.

Bitcoin

Last week, we advised monitoring the $76,500 level, with a close below it likely signaling a further decline for BTC. As the close did not happen on the 1D timeframe, no hints of a continuation appeared. Moreover, after the FOMC minutes, US CPI, and tariff delays, Bitcoin surged along with riskier assets (and US equities).

BTC dynamic remains subject to heightened volatility, with good news on the tariff and monetary policy front stoking bullish sentiment, and with worsening economic conditions and trade war escalation pushing it lower. For now, monitor closely the edges of the newly formed downward consolidation. The strategy is the same as in all previous cases – trade breakouts or bounces back into the range. Until further news causes price spikes in either direction, Bitcoin is likely to continue fluctuating without a clear dynamic. 

EURUSD

The Eurodollar reached our 1.12150 target last week, continuing towards the second target of 1.14975. The pair is now heavily in an overbought zone, so a consolidation or a correction is likely to pave its way into the Fiber.

While Trump-driven decisions are impossible to forecast, economic data is easier to predict. This Thursday, April 17, at 15:15 MT Time, the European Central Bank will decide what the next interest rate will be. It is likely, that in the face of tariff risks and concerns over economic stability in the Eurozone, it will lead to a 0.25% rate cut. This might be used as a trigger to spark a sell-off in the pair, with market participants taking profits after a prolonged rally. The targets of a correction stand at 1.12000, 1.11116, and 1.10240. We remain skeptical about the economic potential of the Euro Area, given recent developments, but if the public continues to believe in growth, the EURUSD might resume the bull run after a short-term correction. Waiting for significant shifts in price action looks like the wisest strategy this week.

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