Market Weekly Overview | April 22

Welcome to this week’s market overview, where we discuss key financial events, geopolitical developments, and market trends shaping global trading dynamics. Each edition provides an in-depth analysis of major assets, including gold, Bitcoin, and EURUSD, alongside critical news affecting the broader financial landscape. Whether you are a trader looking for strategic insights or an investor tracking macroeconomic shifts, this report delivers the essential updates you need to navigate the markets effectively.

Key market news and statistics:

• Trump’s thoughts on Jerome Powell’s firing fuel rally in Gold and Crypto
• China installs Gold ATMs that verify the metal’s purity, credit the amount to the bank account in under 30 minutes.
• International investors continued to dump US bonds, moving savings to EUR and CHF instead
• Gold completed our last 2025 Forecast scenario, $3400/oz target reached
• EURUSD completed our 2025 Forecast scenario, reaching 1.14975
• The Dollar Index (DXY) hits a three-year low
• After the unrespected Easter ceasefire, the war in Ukraine continues as before
• Witkoff is expected to visit Russia at the end of the week
• China warns countries against striking a deal with the US at its expense

Gold

XAUUSD reached a new $3500/oz ATH, completing our 2025 recession scenario (and no recession has happened yet!). The rally has been vertical most of the week, giving traders little hope of entering the market lower on a technical price correction. More news dropped, each providing new bullish fuel and extending the upward momentum, starting with the continuing escalation of reciprocal US-China trade conflict measures and ending with Donald Trump’s words on Fed Chair J. Powell's imminent firing. If he were to be fired, gold might extend the rally further with a big leap, as the successor monetary policy Head would likely cut the rates fast, following Trump’s demands.

Since April 08, XAUUSD has gained $525 (+17.2%) without a major pullback. As we said last week, a verticalization at the end of a prolonged bullish trend is often the last leap of the rally, which is always followed by a stronger correction. The only thing is… that fundamentals continue to tell the story of an unending list of bullish reasons for the precious metal to go higher. If the pullback comes, use the Fibonacci tool to understand where the 0.5 – 0.618 levels are, to enter the market long on a correction. If gold rises again, you can only “buy by market” and use a trailing Stop-Loss. In any case, the faster the rise, the stronger the fall afterwards.

Bitcoin

Last week, we told you to monitor the range closely and use a range-trading strategy. On Monday, following the rumors of a possible Fed Chair replacement (and thus, of an even weaker dollar coming on new Fed rate cuts), BTC soared to $87,700, breaking out of the channel. If dollar weakness were to persist, along with a possible inflation rebound, Bitcoin would benefit with strong bullish momentum.

However, it remains to be seen whether the price manages to continue this rally. Other fundamental factors, such as the growing trade tension between China and the US, might continue to provide bearish catalysts to the leading cryptocurrency. If the breakout is confirmed after a retest, you can enter long, with a Stop-Loss below the retest area. If, however, BTC were to return to the downward channel, we advise caution and a short-oriented approach, with targets as low as $74,400.

EURUSD

The Eurodollar reached our last 1.14975 target, following last week’s Market Overview prediction. The ECB delivered a 0.25% rate cut, but it was not enough to stop buying sentiment from soaring. The number of investors losing faith in the USD is growing by the day, with many of them selling USD-denominated securities (that’s why the US Treasury yields continue to increase) and moving their investments elsewhere. Historically, the strongest currencies after the US dollar are considered to be the Euro, the Franc, and the Yen (and gold, of course). As a result, EURUSD gained 11.50% since the beginning of 2025, USDCHF lost 11.15%, USDJPY lost 10.60% YTD, and XAUUSD is up 29% YTD.

We believe that this influx of funds into European assets will remain positive only until the effects of a prolonged trade war are manifest. The probability of a recession in the US continues to grow, and the Euro Area is pretty connected to the global USD-backed financial system. In any case, while the trend persists to the upside, why not trade it? Use the same strategy as for gold, because the pair is heavily overbought, and a correction lower might provide you with better entry points.

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