Market Weekly Overview | March 18

Welcome to this week’s market overview, where we break down key financial events, geopolitical developments, and market trends that shape global trading dynamics. Each edition provides an in-depth analysis of major assets, including gold, Bitcoin, and EURUSD, alongside critical news affecting the broader financial landscape. Whether you are a trader looking for strategic insights or an investor keeping track of macroeconomic shifts, this report delivers the essential updates you need to navigate the markets effectively.

Key market news and statistics:

• Trump-Putin phone call might happen this week
• Escalation in the Middle East: US army bombs Yemen Houthi’s capital Sanaa
• US economic data continues to worsen: “No guarantees there will not be a recession” – Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent
• Hedge funds are selling stocks at a pace unseen in years
• Fed interest rate decision on March 19, 20:00 MT Time

Gold

In December 2024 we published an article, where we explained all there is to know about the yellow metal. We also forecast 3 main scenarios #XAUUSD could have followed, starting in 2025. On March 14, the second scenario with a $3000/oz target was completed, with everything going according to plan. However, the gold run might be far from over. There is now a concrete chance that scenario 3 is going to develop. US economic data is getting worse report after report and the Fed might have to start considering a rate cut sooner than it planned to.

Now, gold will likely hover around the $3000/oz level until the Fed interest rate decision and rhetoric. Volatility spikes both to the downside and to the upside are likely and both can be used to trade intraday. The lowest point of a retracement stands at the $2967/oz – $2954/oz levels, while any sustained consolidation above the $3005/oz ATH on high volumes will likely lead to further upside.

Bitcoin

After digital enthusiasts’ optimism faded on a falling US stock market, worsening economic data, and an overhyped cryptoconference poor results, #BTCUSD still recovered last week from a low of $76,600 to $83,000. With news events and statistical releases getting gloomier, there seem to be insufficient drivers for an upside in crypto. The main currency pair has been down 24% since its $109,000 ATH – a strong case that supports the start of a bear market.

In any case, what will determine the future dynamics of the crypto market is the Fed interest rate decision. In case a less hawkish tone is perceived and promises of a rate cut in the near future are made, Bitcoin might rebound together with the US stock market. In case it does not happen and a recession becomes unavoidable, prices will sink, following our BTCUSD 2025 forecast’s third scenario. Right now, you can open only short positions, targeting last week’s low.

EURUSD

The European Parliament approved the rearmament plan, boosting traders’ hopes that outsized military spending might reignite economic growth across Europe. Arms producers’ stocks have been in a strong rally since October 2024, with some like Leonardo (LDO) and Thyssenkrupp (TKA) surging between 60-70%, supporting this newfound source of possible economic rebound. At the same time, the trade war has not impacted the EU yet and with worsening US economic conditions the case of a stronger EUR in the short term continues to dominate the headlines.

Technically speaking, EURUSD has been following a tight upward channel, slowly drifting up. The Fed interest rate decision is key for the leading currency pair. If the Fed reacts to the recent sell-off in US equities with easing reassurances, the USD might go lower, boosting the Fiber’s bullish case. Until then – the strategy remains simple. Follow the channel, opening longs from the lower edge, invert to a short on the upper edge, and trade breakouts after a retracement and a confirmation.

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